12 Tech forces that will shape our future

book-notes
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The digital revolution has gone through 3 changes: the copy of the industrial age, the link age, and the streaming age. This is a summary of the concepts representing the new age.

Ages of computing

  • Copy Industrial Age: Hierarchy
    • Desktops, folders, files, Memos , long batch mode (months/weeks)
  • Link Age: Flat web of links
    • Browser, Web, hyperlinking, Emails, Search (days)
  • Streaming Age: Flows of information
    • Feeds/channels, tidbits, unbundling, tags, slack/IM, (instant)

Streaming age

  • Instant more important then access
    • non-netflix movies don’t exist.
    • not on kindle doesn’t exist

  • Nouns liquify and shift to verbs*

    • One Note -> Work Flowy Google Keep
    • Documents -> editing/sharing/reading/content snacking.
    • Seems deep - find others.
    • App names - Scheduly
  • Streaming implies the cloud, not personal ownership.

(TBD) Case study of flowing: Music and Music Industry.

  • Playbook for other industries.

How to add value when copies are free

  • Immediacy (Realtime/On Demand Value Add)

    • Give it to you now.
    • First for online banking
    • Amazon Prime
    • Stock Quotes
    • Early Access/Betas (Kick starter)

  • Personalization

    • Change the movie to have more of what I like in it.
    • Watching with Family make it ‘G Rated’
    • Some time to talk with the author. (Kick starter)

  • Interpretation (Consulting/Coaching)

    • Software is free, but I show you how to use it.
    • Consulting business model.
    • Red hat, MS consulting services.
    • Squash coach

  • Authenticity (Status, Moral Value, Risk Reduction)

    • Some people really value that for brand status.
    • Important if risk possible - like stolen software tampered with.
    • IPhone and Jail Breaking.
    • Software on the internet.

  • Accessibility (Storage provider Value add)

    • Physical assets as a service (Uber)
    • Production tool as a service (Creative Cloud)
    • My owned content as a service (Flickr)
    • I could own the copy, but storage provide value add.
    • Digital books can be copied, but Amazon Kindle stores my highlights. Gives me flash cards.
    • My photo provide - Google Photos/Flickr

  • Embodiment (The physical experience/scarcity value add)

    • People really value this - music concerts/live theatre/physical book
    • Book free, but generic author talk.
    • Holding a book.

  • Patronage (I’m part of the process value add - Kick Starter)

    • Fans want to support.
    • 4 conditions: Easy; Reasonable Amount; Clear Benefit; Money goes to creator
  • Discoverability (Help me find it/recommendation system):
    • Crowd sourcing (amazon/netflix rating)
    • Big compute/Deep Learning (Page Rank)
    • Trusted Curators
    • Tribes
  • Notice how many of these values are kick-start rewards.
  • Igor’s to file
    • Trust
    • Service plans/insurance

Old models for adding value

  • Distribution
  • Artificial Scarcity
  • Limited Distribution (copy right/suing)

Fixity vs Fluidity of industrial age goods (E.g. book)

  • The old fixed way:

    • Fixed Content
    • Fixed Presentation
    • Fixed Container (Durable)
    • Complete

  • The new way:

    • Fluid Content - If I’ve read previous book, skip previous book summaries.
    • Fluid PresentationLook - best for phones vs desktop
    • Fluid Container - Put it on any device/screen I have.
    • Fluid Completion - Always updated to be accurate, auto updating graphs.

Evolution From Fixed to Flowing

  • Fixed / Rare - Only makable by artisan/expert
  • Free / Ubiquitous - Cheap perfect copies
  • Flowing/ Sharing - Break product into parts. Share Remix. Platform.
  • Open / End user Creation - Cheap tools, Audience is creator.

Becoming

  • Technology is now a service, and self upgrading.
  • You’ll always be a newbie, since software is self updating, and changing quickly.
  • Life span most phone apps is 30 days - everything is displaced before you can figure it out.
  • Today’s problems caused by yesterday’s success - so pain causes a a steady accumulation of small benefits.
  • Protopyia - (Process and Progress): Every day is a bit better then yesterday, and realy adds up.
  • When making new tech, always start by cloning old tech - web sites clones of desktop apps. Office clone of ‘physical office’
  • Original idea of web -> TV, but with infinite channels.
    • This model is blocked by who can afford to create so much content?
    • Magic - people create their own content - WHO’D HAVE THOUGHT?
  • Modern system:
    • Users do most of the work - craigs list, e-bay, youtube, facebook - platforms fasicilate but create no content.
    • Amazon’s big value is reviews.
  • Content Manufactoring
    • High value content is NOT created by commercial entities (or classic commercial entities)
  • Web in 2050, not a better web, no more then Web 2.0 is a better TV.
  • WEB TODAY:
    • What can be searched on google.
    • File sreachable via hyperlink - BUT - So mNAY things not linkable.
  • WEB FUTURE:
    • More digital content - specific facebook messages
    • Image search, blue pails in my photot
    • PHysical world - keys in my room
    • Time - Last year - with models, predict into future.
  • Web becomes conversational interface (as opposed to a place)
    • Went from cyber space -> ubiquitous assistant -> electricity.

Cognifying - It’s better then AI.

* It's better with AI

Flowing - From noun to verb

  • Copyable products are the most valueable products - and that’s a good thing.
  • Old ‘solids’ are being maluable (??)
    • Durable goods as a Service/On Demand
      • Cars - Lyft/Uber
      • Vacations - Air BNB
      • Lodging -
      • Grocery Delivery - Dash buttons, amazon fresh
      • Shopping - Amazon
      • Telphone - slightly different
      • Software - always a service constantly upgrading.
    • On Demand

Screening - Reading 2.0

People of the word, the book, and screen

  • The Word - Ancient Times
    • Copy Tech: Human Memory
    • Top Skills: memorization, recitation and rhetoric
    • Audience Valued: Reverence for the past, ambiguuius, ornate and subjective.
    • Truth: The thing you remember (likely the best story)

  • The Book - Uptil we got screens

    • Copy Tech: Cheap mass copies of words on paper
    • Top Skills: Precision (ink on paper), Linear Logic (sentances), objectivity (printed fact), authoriity (fixed in a book).
    • Societal Impacts - 50K - 1M english words. Culture of experts. Roots are the written document (lawg
    • Truth: What is written down by the authority.
    • Solve problems by applying laws ( Process)
  • The screen
    • Copy Tech: Cheap Dynamic copies of everything on screens
    • Top Skills:
    • Audience Valued: Attention Grabbing, Concise
    • Truth: What we assemble in real time from scanning
    • Solve problems by applying technology ( code solutions )

People of the screen

  • Make their own content, and their own truth
  • Fast - constant 30 second snippets, liquid - like a walk through wikipedia
  • Not about words - but about pictures/videos/infographics
  • WORDS are replaced by the power of coded tools + user genearted content. [ Power here, but not yet grocked ]

Will screens make us stupid?

  • Argument started in the 50s saying TVs will make illiterate,
    • For short time, no one read, and reading scores where way down.
    • but NOW, more people write then ever before.
    • People 3x as much now since the 80s

Screening (Reading 2.0)

  • In theory, we’re still reading, but now it’s much more dynamic.
    • Video augmented, interactive (words on images), hyperlinks.
    • Books we watch + television we read

Case Study Books:

  • Start with books, then libraries of books, videos, games, education, all.

Accessing - From Ownership to Just in Time Rental

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Sharing

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Filtering

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Remixing

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Interacting

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Tracking

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Questioning

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Begining

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