Age Before Beauty: The Vanishing Act of Older Coders

≡

In 2002, I started programming at MSFT with lots of other 20-year-olds. I don’t recall the age distributions, but maybe 90% of the programmers I knew were under 40. In 2020, at 41, I’m no longer a programmer, and the majority of programmers are much younger than me. This begs the question, where do all the programmers go as they get older? I’m very curious about the answer. Here are some of my theories….

TODO: Picture of pyramid of age distributions

https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#developer-profile-age

BIG DISCLAIMER

These are some half-baked ideas, looking forward to discussing with others to build better hypotheses.

Hypothesis

Exponential growth of programmers

From clean craftsmanship:

“People look at the number of young people in programming and conclude that it’s a young person’s profession. They ask, “Where are all the old people?” We’re all still here! We haven’t gone anywhere. There just weren’t that many of us to begin with. The problem is that there aren’t enough of us old guys to teach the new programmers coming in. For every programmer with 30 years’ experience, there are 63 programmers who need to learn something from her (or him), 32 of whom are brand new.”

Won the lottery and cashed out

The software industry has minted many millionaires. I’ve met lots of engineers who were able to retire.

Moved to management

Some folks have moved to management, but that can’t be all of them, as management is a tree with a fanout of 1:10, so that could at most account for 1 in 10.

Switched to other industries

I don’t see a lot of this in my peer group, curious.

Is age discrimination a thing?

Many people have told me there is. I can honestly say, having performed 100s of interviews in my career, I have never seen discrimination on age. However, I have seen older folks sharing negative mindsets that can be stereotypes.

Negative Mindsets

While I haven’t seen age discrimination due to age, I’ve seen some attributes that tend to be attributed to older folks.

I don’t care about this new stuff, it’s all BS, I’m just gonna do what I want

Who moved my cheese?

I just want to coast till I have enough to retire

Declines and Growth as you cross 50

[From Strength to strength] is a book that starts off explaining what gets better and what gets worse as we move into the 50s. I’ll likley merge that section there.

Loading (/elder)

Age Based Advantages

  1. Emotional Stability
    1. Discipline
    2. Tolerance
    3. Intrinsic motivation
  2. Experience
    1. Not my first rodeo
    2. Having done it before.
  3. Clarity
    1. Time Affluence
    2. Clarity of purpose
    3. Ability to see the big picture

Age Based Cognitive Declines

I don’t know when it kicks in, but I think the science is clear, and I certainly have seen a reduction in some of my cognitive processes. Using a computer model:

  1. Smaller working set - Can only keep so much in my head at once.
  2. Smaller input set - Can only process so much information at once.
  3. Lower peak load - Can’t push for 110% for as long.
  4. Worse Memory - I must write down everything or I’ll lose it.

AI as an equalizer

AI tools and assistants could potentially level the playing field between younger and older programmers.

  1. Focusing on strengths:

    • With AI handling more routine coding tasks, older programmers can focus on areas where their experience shines, such as system design and problem-solving.

  2. Leveraging experience:

    • Older programmers can use their experience to better prompt and direct AI tools.
    • AI can help translate experienced programmers’ high-level ideas into modern code syntax.

  3. Continuous learning:

    • AI-powered learning tools can help older programmers stay up-to-date with new technologies more easily.

  4. Compensating for cognitive declines:

    • AI can assist with memory tasks, reducing the impact of age-related memory issues.
    • Large language models can help with code completion and generation, lessening the need for rapid recall.

  5. Enhancing productivity:

    • AI coding assistants can help maintain high productivity levels, potentially offsetting age-related slowdowns.

This evolving synergy between human experience and AI capabilities might create a more inclusive and balanced tech industry, where the strengths of both younger and older programmers are valued and amplified.

While AI benefits everyone, as of 2024, it benefits you the more experience you have.